For years, the divide between direct and indirect sales has been clear and non-negotiable. In 2026, IDC believes the distinction will matter far less.
Long-standing frameworks that guided vendor and partner strategies for years are rapidly losing relevance, according to the analyst firm’s partnering ecosystems trends report published in December. In their place, more fluid, ecosystem-driven models are emerging, shaped by customer behavior, platform economics, AI and increasingly complex routes to market.
At the same time, the vendor adage of a "customer first" value proposition often doesn't translate to partners. The IDC report identified three structural shifts the firm expects to shape the ecosystem this year.
Linear sales channels erode
The divide between direct and indirect sales models will erode in the coming years. In 2026, platforms, infrastructure providers, software vendors, service partners, hyperscalers, marketplaces and integrators are all involved in delivering outcomes to customers.
Co-selling has become the default operating model, not an exception. Vendors, partners and service providers routinely collaborate across overlapping sales motions, often touching the same customer at different points in the adoption journey. In this environment, the old idea of a clean, direct or indirect route to market no longer reflects reality, IDC said.
Customer-led buying models are reshaping how deals now move through ecosystems, according to Rupert Davey, managing director at CTM IT, a Microsoft Solutions partner.
“Platforms, vendors, service providers and partners are all touching the same deal at different points, and the old definitions of direct and indirect simply don’t hold up anymore,” Davey said.
Products and services are still sourced through distributors, but they increasingly reach end customers via complex chains of intermediaries, platforms, and marketplaces rather than linear channel paths.
“The traditional lines between ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ routes to market are blurring to the point of irrelevance,” said Stuart Wilson, senior research director for EMEA partnering ecosystems at IDC. “Shifting transaction models, evolving customer preferences and the growing number of parties involved in delivering technology solutions are dismantling long-standing channel dogmas.”
The breakdown has reconfigured priorities.
“What matters now is how ecosystems collaborate around the customer — not who technically owns the sale,” Wilson said.
Compensation models further blur these boundaries.
Revenue sharing, usage-based pricing, incentives, rebates and marketplace fees are spread across multiple entities participating in a single customer engagement. As these transaction flows grow more intricate, the conceptual line between direct and indirect dissolves almost entirely.
The complexity is pushing both models toward a more consultative future, Jason McKay, chief product officer at managed cloud service provider RapidScale, told Channel Dive.
“The client-driven chaos that’s fueling the debatable relativity of direct versus indirect sales is also fundamentally pushing both models toward consultative selling,” McKay said. “Whether a vendor sells directly or through partners, their success increasingly depends on helping customers navigate complexity, and moving beyond the transaction into addressing needs on a case-by-case basis.”
The value propositions battleground
The channel is seeing a rift emerge between customer and partner value propositions, IDC said. The divergence is creating tension.
What excites customers does not always benefit partners. In some cases, innovations that improve simplicity, automation or self-service for end users reduce traditional partner opportunities around integration, customization or managed services. A solution can be compelling for customers while simultaneously becoming less attractive for partners to sell or support.
“A customer-first value proposition might sell the vision, but if it doesn’t clearly articulate what’s in it for the partner … enthusiasm stalls. Partners need reassurance that they remain central to delivering outcomes, relevance and long-term value,” said Richard Eglon, CMO at MSP Nebula Global Services.
This dynamic creates critical challenges for vendors. Partners increasingly need their own clear “why” before they will fully commit to a technology or platform.
“Vendors that fail to recognize and bridge this gap risk alienating their partner ecosystems, losing mindshare, and undermining long-term growth,” said Wilson.
Partners may publicly promote a vendor’s customer messaging while privately expressing frustration, according to IDC.
“This tension is now becoming visible. It’s draining enthusiasm, muddying GTM alignment, and slowing the impact that 2026 is otherwise primed to deliver,” said Eglon. “Vendors must recognize that customer and partner value props are no longer the same story.”
Davey noted that AI ecosystems are amplifying the problem rather than solving it.
“The disconnect between tier-one AI vendors, their partner ecosystems and end customers is stark,” Davey said “The use cases, workflows and adoption models being presented by vendors are so far off the mark it’s frankly astonishing. It’s compounded by vendors failing to properly enable their partner ecosystems to experience and demonstrate the ‘art of the possible’ for customers.”
This, he added, can push partners into a balancing act.
“Partners are walking a thin line between placating vendors and echoing growing customer disillusionment,” Davey said. “That internal disconnect doesn’t just slow adoption — it actively damages trust and confidence in the ecosystem.”
Others see the same pattern emerging across channel communities.
“Most successful partners have always needed a clear ‘why’ from the vendors they build their operations around as to what’s in it for them,” McKay said. “The channel has seen numerous examples of this disconnect between vendors and their partners creating major rifts in partner ecosystems in recent years that actually thins viable competition on both sides.”
A pivot to “build”
IDC expects “sell” and “serve” partners to diminish in importance as transaction models become more automated and AI takes on more basic service and support functions.
In contrast, “build” partners — including ISVs, alliance partners and developers — are moving to the center of platform strategies.
Established software vendors are intensifying their focus on marketplaces, APIs and extensibility, relying on build partners to create add-ons, integrations and industry-specific solutions. This approach deepens platform embeddedness within customer environments and significantly increases switching costs and long-term stickiness.
At the same time, IDC expects the rise of mini-ecosystems. More ISVs are aspiring to become platforms themselves, encouraging other build partners to innovate within their solutions while still working alongside hyperscalers and major software vendors.
Traditional sales and service roles will not disappear, but they will no longer define the center of gravity for mature platforms, according to IDC.
“The rush for front-line AI customer service tooling will ultimately push customers back towards people-centric service models,” said Davey. “For boutique partners especially, tolerance for AI-only service experiences is untested — and probably unsustainable in the long run. People want to talk to people, particularly when they’re dealing with real problems.”
McKay agreed that service partners will not disappear, but evolve.
“Maturing AI ecosystems will not reduce the role of service-oriented partners,” he said. “By offering first-hand consultative guidance on AI implementation, and a sound understanding that makes sense of hype-fueled ‘turnkey’ solutions, these partners can cement demand for their expertise within the adoption curve.”
